Journal of the Brexit Year: June -July 2019

Everyone thinks Boris will be the next PM and they’re trying to bring him in down in advance. The rise and fall of Rory Stewart and the EU gets some new presidents.

It’s part 7 of the Brexit Journal, and the UK still hasn’t left.

15th and 16th June 2019

Boris is Shy: You Heard it Here First

I’m not terribly interested in the Tory party leadership election, to be honest. Certainly not at this stage. I’m sort of happy that all but one of the candidates appear to back some sort of Brexit. The ‘one’ being Rory Stewart who is obviously a Remainer. I’ll probably pay more attention when we’re down to the last two, but I’ve got to write something about it now as there’s little else going on.

The only thing that the media seems to be interested in (other than Rory) is Boris not turning up to the Channel 4 debate on Sunday[1], and his general lack of interaction with the TV media. It’s said that he’s worried about making a ‘gaffe’ under pressure. This is possible. Most of Boris’ ‘gaffes’ are failed jokes made while he tries to think of an answer, but then he gets too tied up with the joke and looks rather silly. In my humble opinion, and having been on nodding acquaintance with him many years ago, he’s actually very shy. Which explains the bluster. A very Etonian way of getting past the problem.

17th June 2019

Boris Can’t Hide Much Longer

Still the Tory leadership dominates ahead of the second round of voting tomorrow.

Boris didn’t do the ‘lobby’ hustings today[2], and why should he? He’s [spending his time] smooching up to the actual voters which happens to be the Parliamentary Conservative party at the moment. He’s doing ‘private meetings’. Of course, the cynics are out in force. Not only is Boris’ approach said to be to prevent him making public gaffes (probably true) it’s also so he can tell one lot of MPs one thing and say something else to another lot. This latter surmise I very much doubt. Do these cynical commentators think that Tory MPs don’t talk to each other? Yes, the Tories are ridden with factionalism, but not so much that words on the important matter of the next PM aren’t exchanged. Boris could get away with a difference in tone and emphasis, but not contradictory statements.

He is going to have to come out of his box soon though. MPs could become concerned if it seems he’s not actually up to appearing in public facing hostile questions. This may be why he’s said he will do the BBC ‘debate’ tomorrow.

18th June 2019

A Cacophony

Dominic Raab was eliminated in the second round of MPs voting today. No great loss.

Boris was right not to do the Channel 4 debate, if today’s BBC one was anything to go by. With 5 contenders, it was too cacophonous[3]. With 6 it would have been unbearable. But, as I said yesterday, Boris had to be there today to maintain the confidence of his MP supporters. Not that he was much good. Nobody was. Rory Stewart was best when he was asking questions of the others, but not when setting out his own agenda when he was certainly no better than his opponents: who were all terrible at it.

The format didn’t help – pointed questions had been selected rather than discursive ones. Not enough time was given for answers before Emily Maitlis, or sometimes another contender, interrupted. There was too much talking over each other. There were too many questions and Emily’s interventions were skewed against Boris, though some barbs were aimed elsewhere too.

I gave up towards the end when some child asked about the environment and it was clear that the panel would all toe the millenarian climate change line. Why couldn’t at least one of them talked properly about other more important environmental problems that could be solved at a fraction of the costs of ‘climate change’ policies that change nothing? That would be showing leadership.

19th June 2019

The Beeb has Boobed

Rory Stewart was eliminated from the Tory leadership race today, receiving 10 less votes than he got yesterday[4]. I suspect that some of those 10 had been lent to him, probably by the Boris campaign, to see off Raab. Or the rats simply left the sinking ship? I don’t expect that we’ll hear too much from Rory now the media bubble has burst.

One of yesterday’s BBC debate questions, selected to embarrass Boris no doubt, was put by an Iman called Abdullah Patel[5]. It turns out that this guy is an alleged anti-Semite with Corbynite tendencies[6]. The Beeb is all in denial about it, claiming that they didn’t know as his twitter feed was turned off[7]. Another questioner was a dyed-in-the-wool Labour activist stirring up trouble. In short, the BBC made a mess of it by deliberately selecting questioners who were going to be aggressive or very anti-Boris. They were caught out. Abolish the license fee!

The next TV debate, which I understand will be between the final two contenders, is to be on Sky News, hosted by Kay Burley. Surely it can’t be worse than the BBC’s effort?

But who will be in the final? There are two votes planned for tomorrow which should decide it.

20th June 2019

It’s Boris!

Boris and Jeremy Hunt will go forward to the Tory members for the final decision on who is to be the next Prime Minister. Most commentators think that it will be BoJo. Gove was eliminated in the final round of voting, Sajid Javid having been ruled out this morning.

Several commentators – not least Sky’s Beth Rigby who has been banging on about it since the final result was known[8] – speculate that Boris ‘lent’ votes to Hunt to ensure that Gove did not get through[9]. But nobody, not even the Gove camp, thinks that was actually the case. It’s plausible that one or two individual MPs did vote for Hunt, when really they were backing Boris, but that’s not the organised ‘scandal’ that the media want to drum up.

Some of the numbers did look a bit odd – such as Boris’ votes not increasing very much after Sajid dropped out despite several Saj followers declaring for Boris. But Hunt only beat Gove by two votes. This was too close for a genuine attempt to rig the election given how many votes Boris had to play with.

21st June 2019

Tories in Trouble

  1. Mark Field was filmed physically manhandling a Greenpeace protestor from some banquet or other[10]. It was all a bit unnecessary, over the top and generally a bad look. No harm done, of course, but as eco-protesting is ‘in’, and Field did look a bit unhinged in the video, and Field was suspended as a minister as a result, it can’t help the Tory popularity ratings.
  2. The good burghers of Brecon and Radnor have petitioned to have their Tory MP thrown out following his expenses fiddling[11]. Although the constituency is ‘leave’, it’s a Tory/LibDem marginal, and is expected to go LibDem again if there’s a byelection. Especially so as a Brexit party candidate will likely split the ‘leave’ vote.
  3. BoJo was recorded having a row with his girlfriend early this morning. Some nosy neighbour recorded the noise and sent it to the Guardian. PC Plod was also summoned[12]. This really looks like a plot against Boris, but nevertheless, it’s a poor show from someone who wants to be PM. Could Boris be forced to withdraw? Would that put Gove back in the final two?

22nd and 23rd June 2019

Row Gate

Boris’ ‘row’ problem is still in the news, despite the fact that the neighbours were, allegedly, politically motivated and may have been feuding with Boris and Carrie Symonds since he moved into her flat[13]. It is worth noting that she was a victim of Thomas Worboys[14] who was convicted of more crimes on the day the row took place[15]. It may explain why Boris happened to upset her, if she was emotional already after seeing that story in the news.

It’s not helping that Boris has refused, so far, to make any kind of comment. He didn’t respond to Iain Dale’s questions at the ‘official’ hustings yesterday[16]. Boris has also said he’s not doing the Sky debate next week which Kay Burley was supposed to be hosting[17]. I can see why. Kay has been pretty obvious in her dislike for Boris, and he doesn’t have to do it. But it does give ammunition to Hunt’s campaign to be able to label Boris as a coward.

24th June 2019

Bored

I’m getting even more bored with row-gate and the tedious reporting of the Tory leadership campaigns. The bias is obvious in all media outlets. Why don’t they have anything else to say if Boris is so unsuitable for the job?

Still, some Tory MPs are threatening to vote against a Boris Government if ‘no-deal’ is the conclusion of Brexit come 31st October. Ken Clarke was quite open about it over the weekend[18]. ‘Remain’ is in Clarke’s DNA (he would already have been Prime Minister otherwise), I’ve a sneaking suspicion that he fancies himself as PM of a cross-party government should the Tory Government collapse under Boris and be no-confidenced.

Having done little media so far, Boris did do a face-to-face with Laura Kuenssberg[19]. I didn’t see it (As I said, I am bored with the whole thing!). Apparently, she was quite soft with him, perhaps to make up for the BBC debate issues last week[20].

Personally, I don’t think Boris is actually up to being PM[21].

25th June 2019

Garden Gate

Garden Gate – provenance unknown.

‘Row Gate’ became ‘Garden Gate’ today. ‘Someone’ released a photo of Boris and Carrie in a garden at a picnic table. It was probably not a recent photo and has been much mocked as an obvious attempt to suggest that they are just an ordinary happy couple. Boris won’t comment on the photo or its provenance.

Meanwhile Hunt is trying to make much, too much, of Boris not doing a Sky News debate by using a hashtag something like #noShowBoJo. Very witty I’m sure. Boris has actually done another interview today with some radio channel or other[22]. He’s still spouting the same old stuff, although it seems to some that it’s a bit better worked out than it was.

Hunt did an interview with Laura Kuenssberg today[23], and set out some reasonable policies, such as on education and the health service. But his Brexit policy is really no different to Boris’. Brussels has told both of them ‘non’ several times.

Liam Fox has attempted to kill off the idea that ‘no-deal’ could work under GATT article 24, or some such[24]. It won’t change what the two candidates will say, of course. ‘WTO terms’ is still the mantra, although both Boris and Jeremy say it won’t come to that. No, it won’t. The House of Commons won’t let it.

26th June 2019

Estimates and Brexit

At last, some genuine Brexit related news. According to Tom Newton Dunn in tomorrow’s super soar away Sun, there’s plotting afoot in the House of Commons[25].

Dominic Grieve (soon to be deselected surely?) and Margaret Beckett are proposing to amend the annual ‘estimates’ legislation that is coming up soon. The idea is to make sure that the Government (under Boris presumably) can’t do a ‘no-deal’ Brexit without House of commons approval on pain of Government spending being largely stopped. This is yet another attempt to ‘take no-deal off the table’ without any consideration of what the EU might do. It’s unlikely, I know, but if the EU said, on 31st October, ‘Enough is enough. You’re out!’, would that freeze UK Government expenditure?

These people are fools. I think that the amendment might well not pass, just as the last attempt to take over House of Commons business failed[26]. It would set an appalling precedent on what is a supply vote. Many Members of Parliament will know what happens when this sort of thing occurs in the US Congress and won’t want such action becoming a tactic in UK politics

27th June 2019

More Cans Kicked Down the Road

It was the Bournemouth Tory party leadership hustings today. Boris thinks ‘it’s a million to one’ that there will be a no-deal Brexit[27]. Jeremy Hunt, amongst many, says that it’s far more likely than that. But Boris is correct. At 31st October, we’ll either leave with a deal or just won’t leave. Probably ever.

Labour, the well-known neo-Nazi party, continues to deny that it is anti-Semitic after reinstating one of its MPs, Williamson[28] [29], who was suspended for denying that there was much anti-Semitism in the party. If they sacked Williamson, then obviously what Williamson said was not true. So, it does have an anti-Semitism problem. Or something.

Labour is still debating its Brexit policy. Even Diane Abbott, via Twitter, is saying it needs to reconsider its fence-sitting[30]. This follows recent discussions at senior levels in the party where Jeremy Corbyn put off taking any decisions to ‘allow for more discussion with Trade Unions’. Jeremy Corbyn is getting as good at kicking cans further into the long grass as Mrs May.

28th June 2019

Is Jeremy Corbyn Falling Apart?

Theresa May went to Japan for a G20 summit and all she brought back was a picture of her looking very unhappy with Mr Putin[31]. I’m sure that Mr Putin is gutted that the picture is so bad.

There’s a story in tomorrow’s Times that might get some traction. It reports that Civil Servants are concerned about Jeremy Corbyn’s health and his ability to be Prime Minister[32]. Apparently, he’s getting very forgetful, argumentative and can’t control his party. Who would have guessed? Labour deny it all, of course.

Further, it seems that Corbyn is ruled by his closest advisors including John McDonnell, Seumas Milne, and the Trade Union man Len McCluskey. This is said to be why Corbyn is refusing to fully back a second referendum because these folks won’t let him. Well, I know a secret: Jeremy Corbyn’ really doesn’t want a second referendum.

Boris has recorded an interview with Sophy Ridge. It’s to be broadcast on Sunday. ‘If you can survive Sophy Ridge, you can survive anything’ said Boris[33]. Given that politics moves so fast these days, it will probably be stale old news by then: ‘Events, dear boy, events’.

29th and 30th June 2019

No entry for this weekend.

1st July 2019

Lame-Duck Phil

Speaker Bercow has not called any amendments to the ‘estimates’ vote tomorrow[34]. While I’m a little disappointed in that it would have been an interesting debate to watch and would have given a true indication of the strength of the ‘no-deal’ vote as Labour (characteristically) hadn’t decided one way or another. But Bercow was probably right. It would have been an horrific precedent and could have led to a confidence vote in a government headed by a Prime Minister who is resigning soon.

‘Spreadsheet Phil’, the chancellor, has had a pop at both the Tory leadership candidates[35]. He correctly says that there’s not enough cash available for their spending promises – especially the money offered if there’s a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. But Hammond’s days as Chancellor are limited. Neither Boris nor Hunt will have him, and his personal influence is almost nil. Even Mrs May is spending money like water, despite his advice. She wants more money for schools, which might be wise, but she’s screwed the economy for the foreseeable future in her daft ‘climate change’ order last week[36]. All against the Chancellor’s advice[37].

So, farewell then Philip Hammond. No influence, no future. Very sad.

2nd July 2019

Ode to Farage

‘And the winner is…’ said Donald Tusk (almost) announcing the names of those selected to be the next heads of the various EU bureaucracies[38]. Almost all of them are compromises and unknowns in the UK. The exception is Christine Lagarde, formerly of the IMF who is to be head of the European Central Bank. This appointment is highly suspect. She has been an ‘establishment’ finance person for ages and has a dubious track record. An ideal person for the EU, obviously.

The Remainer media have got themselves all worked up about the Brexit party’s protest at today’s first meeting of the new EU parliament[39]. They all turned their backs when ‘Ode to Joy’ was played on the grounds that the EU is not a country and still less is it their country, so why should they be expected to stand for the anthem? I agree in principle with the Brexit party on this, but it would have been more dignified to simply remain seated.

3rd July 2019

What Power Have You Got? How Do We Get Rid of You?

In full, the result of the elections selection process for the top bods in the EU for the next five years.[40]

Commission President: The German Defence Minister, a political friend of Mrs Merkel and arch euro-federalist, Ursula von der Leyen.

European Council President: Son of a former EU Commissioner, the first EU dynast and Prime Minister of Belgium, Charles Michel.

European central Bank President: Convicted fraudster[41], head of the IMF and part of the Troika’s second bailout of Greece and ‘not an economist’, Christine Lagarde.

Of more significance is that there is incredible disquiet about the appointment process, seeing it as a stitch-up. Apparently, the usual carve-up process was not followed[42]. The ‘spitzenkandidaten’[43] system relies on big blocs forming in the EU parliament – the EPP and S&D groups in particular. But those blocs are much smaller than usual following the 2019 elections. So the front runner for the EU Commission President’s job, Frans Timmermans couldn’t get enough support. The EU Council simply selected someone else, who nobody wanted – so much for even a semblance of EU democracy.

4th July 2019

I’m an Ann’s Man

Ann Widdecombe – who I knew well in the early 1980s – has made her maiden speech in the EU Parliament. It was a bit over the top[44].

She compared Brexit to the peasants throwing over their feudal masters, wars of independence and, most controversially, to slave revolts. Of course, this latter point was bound to make the virtue signalling lefties holler and splutter. I’d guess that Ann meant it to. But it was a bit crass. She could have made much more mileage if she’d talked about the US Declaration of Independence, especially as it’s the 4th July today. Even that is not a great analogy of course, but it’s rather more to the point than ‘slave revolts’.

There was only one slave revolt that I can think of that was successful: that was in Haiti. Not an example the UK would want to follow though. It was not a successful no-deal exit from French dominion if one considers the present state of that country.

Speaking of US Independence Day, The Donald has added some cheerful examples of US military might to the annual parade. Tanks. God bless America!

5th July 2019

Remain Alliance Versus Corbyn

This week has seen more discontent at Labour’s Brexit stance bubbling up amongst party members. With Labour coming fourth (behind the Tories, LibDems and the Brexit party) in opinion polls[45], Labour Remainers are strongly pushing for Labour to come out as a ‘remain’ party. Corbyn is moving towards ‘giving the people the final say’, but he’s not clear as to whether this means a second referendum or a general election.

This is against the background of a possible electoral pact between the LibDems, the Greens and Plaid Cymru, and possibly also the SNP (‘Remain Alliance’ is a working title) such that the party most likely to win the seat in a given constituency is supported by the other alliance parties not standing candidates against them. A trial of this is planned for the Brecon and Radnorshire byelection which is due soon[46].

On the other hand, an increasing number of Labour MPs seem likely to support a rehash of ‘May’s Deal’ to get Brexit over the line. These tend to be MPs in northern English constituencies where Brexit is popular.

In 2017 many voters were under the mistaken impression that Labour was a Remain party, hence why Corbyn did much better than expected then. That momentum has now been lost to (mainly) the Liberal-Democrats.

I don’t think Labour can claw it all back again, even if there is a clear policy change. This might even split the remain vote sufficiently to allow the Brexit party and the Tories to win seats, even where the ‘Remain Alliance’ appears strong. What will Corbyn do?

6th and 7th July 2019

Desert Winds

This weekend was a desert for Brexit news. The tumbleweed blows across this journal. The only debates are over the Labour Brexit policy, as I noted yesterday, and Boris and Hunt’s various promises.

As far as the Tory leadership is concerned, the ballot papers are going out and, as many people will return them pretty much straight away, the rest is so much hot air.

I should have mentioned this before, but it seems that around 30 Tory MPs will act to prevent Boris (for they assume that it will be he) from going for a ‘no-deal’ Brexit, even if it takes a no confidence vote to get that result[47]. As well as the usual suspects (Letwin, Grieve) it could include Phillip Hammond and Theresa May![48] Well, they have to find something to do on the back benches. Personally, I don’t think it will come to that[49]. I do expect a tweaked ‘May Deal’ to be offered to the Commons, which may pass it, but more likely not. More delays will follow until someone revokes Article 50.

8th July 2019

United We Stand – Or Not

Dominic Grieve has tabled an amendment to the Northern Ireland legislation currently passing through the Commons[50]. If accepted for debate by the Speaker, and if passed by the House, it will become a legal requirement for the Northern Ireland Secretary to report to the House on a fortnightly basis, the progress made on getting the Northern Ireland Executive up and running again.

At face value, this might encourage ministers and others to get on with sorting out the long-standing problem of governance in the Province. But really, it’s a way of preventing the prorogation of Parliament in the run-up to ‘Brexit Day’ on 31st October[51]. Parliament can’t receive these updates if it is prorogued. Therefore, Parliament cannot be prorogued. It is an anti-Brexit amendment. This could be debated tomorrow. I’ll be surprised if it is passed and I’m not convinced Bercow or whoever is in the chair will even allow it.

The trade unions have decided that they want Labour to resist a ‘Tory Brexit’[52]. I’m not sure this actually means they want to cancel Brexit. I think it’s a compromise: only a ‘Labour Brexit’ would be acceptable to the unions, or some other suitable fudge. Is it a ‘Labour Brexit’ if the Parliamentary Labour Party votes for it, whatever sort of deal is on offer?

9th July 2019

A Grievous Blow to No-Deal?

I admit to being a bit confused. Early today, I’m sure I read that the Deputy Speaker had not called the Grieve amendment[53], to require the Government to report on a fortnightly basis to the House of Commons on progress on forming a new Northern Ireland Executive, presumably on the grounds that it was ‘outside the scope of the bill’, being obviously about Brexit, not devolution. But I learn from the BBC’s Today in Parliament that it was debated and passed by one vote: 294 to 293, I think.

The debate, as far as the amendment was concerned, was blatantly about Brexit, and no pretence was made that it was to help the situation in the Province.

Anyway, this is seen to rule out the prorogation of Parliament in order to allow a no-deal Brexit by default. As I said yesterday, an obviously anti-Boris move.

To be fair, Boris, speaking in a televised debate with Jeremy Hunt, did not completely rule out such a manoeuvre, although Hunt did. But surely it can’t come to a prorogation in any event? It would be a massive political blunder resulting in an immediate no-confidence vote in which the Government would fall. I can’t see even Boris risking this for Brexit. Although it would get no-deal over the line.

Labour have followed the Unions’ Brexit line, and are now a ‘Remain’ party, if the option is a ‘Tory Deal’(?).

10th July 2019

More Legalese

I’m still confused about yesterday’s Grieve amendment. As far as I can gather, the one he actually wanted was not selected. But one (of several) he and others proposed, that does much the same thing in terms of preventing Parliament being prorogued, was passed. It was in some way less strong than the one he wanted.[54] Legal nerds and policy wonks are poring over it. We’ll see if we need to see.

On a related note, John Major – who was once PM and signed us up to the Maastricht treaty without a referendum – said on Radio 4 Today that he will mount a legal challenge if Parliament is prorogued[55].

Another legal question. In the past, if Parliament was prorogued, did that mean that the Judicial Committee of the House of Lords could not sit? Now that that Committee has been abolished and replaced with the Supreme Court, can that body sit if there’s no sitting of Parliament? What practical difference could that make, be it for a hearing about Brexit or anything else?

11th July 2019

Red, Blue and Amber

The news is all Labour’s racism towards Jews. There was a BBC Panorama show last night[56]. The National Socialist Party of Great Britain, formerly known as the Labour Party, has a problem with its attitude to Jews, apparently. This is probably because hate crimes have risen ‘due to Brexit’, and the impact of climate change can’t have helped either.

Nothing of much note on the Tory leadership election either. There’s still argument over Boris’ reaction to the leaking of ambassadorial e-mails and his failure to support our man in Washington[57]. But it’s all over bar the shouting. Most Tory members have made their minds up and have, probably, already voted. Andrew Neil is due to interview both candidates soon. That will liven things up, but too late to make any difference.

Nothing at all on Brexit, unless you count Amber Rudd’s Damascene conversion to the Brexit cause[58]. Cynics are suggesting that she wants Boris to give her a cabinet job. I think she wants to avoid a General Election at all costs. Her seat, Hastings, is very marginal and she’d lose in a ‘snap election’.

12th July 2019

The Andrew Neil Interviews

Today was the day when the BBC broadcast the Andrew Neil interviews with Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt[59]. In many ways this was the toughest test yet for the candidates. Andrew is possibly the most forensic interviewer on television these days.

Both of them suffered at his hands. Probably Boris came off worst. This was for two reasons. Firstly, that Boris’ usual tricks for deflection and diversion (bluster, talking over the interviewer and answering the wrong question) didn’t work on Neil. They’re debating tricks, best used where there’s a live audience and an opponent to debate with. They don’t work well on TV unless used very sparingly, which Boris’ use wasn’t. Secondly, because Boris had more to defend, in particular his habit of saying what first comes into his head and (as a result) not telling the truth by getting it all mixed up.

Hunt was challenged too, but it was more about inconstancies in his policies. This was effective precisely because Hunt has been more specific on detail than Boris: doing so makes inconsistencies more obvious. Boris can smooth over his more easily. Overall, marks out of 10, 5 to Boris, 7 to Hunt.

They say that these interviews could make more difference than originally thought, as fewer Tory members than expected have so far returned their ballot papers, so they may well watch this show before voting. Maybe, but maybe they are simply in the post?

13th and 14th July

The Miller’s Tale (Part 2)[60]

Gina Miller, whose legal action forced the Government to put Article 50 through Parliament and thus put Brexit into law, is going to try it again. This time she says that she will take legal action should Boris, as PM, prorogue Parliament in order to get a ‘no-deal’ Brexit through.

Hilariously, she apparently told Sky’s Niall Paterson on the Sophy Ridge show[61] that she’d got her ‘legal team’, Mishcon de Reya, to write to Boris to tell him that he must give her seven days’ notice if he, Boris, is going to see the Queen to ask for prorogation. And why has she only written to Boris? Why not Jeremy Hunt, or even Jeremy Corbyn? Well you can send letters to anyone, and even from a solicitor it doesn’t mean that they have to do what you say. And I don’t think that it is possible, constitutionally or otherwise, to force anyone to give notice if they are going to see anyone about anything[62]. Especially if it’s the Queen.

I’m not saying that prorogation isn’t actionable, but a PM going to see the Queen certainly isn’t.

Miller is wasting George Soros’ her money here. The only winners being Mishcon’s who are rubbing their hands with glee on the way to the bank. I don’t think this work will be pro-bono, do you?


[1] https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-rules-out-cacophonous-channel-4-debate-but-agrees-to-bbc-appearance/

[2] https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/boris-johnson-dodges-tory-leadership-hustings-with-lobby-journalists/

[3] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-tory-debate-highlights-who-won-bbc-video-conservative-leadership-a8964571.html

[4] https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/rory-stewart-eliminated-in-latest-round-of-uk-leadership-vote-20190619

[5] https://order-order.com/2019/06/19/abdullah-bristol-wants-know-panel-agree-words-consequences/

[6] https://order-order.com/people/abdullah-patel/

[7] https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/showbiz-tv/bbc-hit-back-over-imam-16451423

[8] https://news.sky.com/story/johnsons-ultimate-revenge-on-gove-but-were-there-dirty-tricks-11745978

[9] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/20/jeremy-hunt-and-boris-johnson-are-final-two-in-tory-leadership-race

[10] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48714864

[11] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/21/petition-to-recall-convicted-tory-mp-chris-davies-succeeds

[12] https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/boris-johnson/news/104759/police-called-boris-johnsons

[13] https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9353665/boris-johnson-neighbour-recorded-row-carrie-symonds/

[14] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/4987303/John-Worboys-Victim-Carrie-Symonds-story.html

[15] https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jun/20/john-worboys-admits-drugging-four-more-women

[16] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48731774

[17] https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/johnson-turned-down-sky-news-debate-says-presenter_uk_5d0d3856e4b07ae90d9cf713?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAK4TCLhgaHMJo6eS3FnoNp9M3U3jZZ-zqPxJx6Wn1biEVqU0XEdLdbSah9DuzT4LarBvvzgQWfImjnXGikAZo_H9oxPuoIRVLWIPzJdBksbzUFIkT7GPmciwKPJiTAnwdgh0gx6nNwVJdaFLQbqusaXhrL5QjokRWKgg1I2balxn

[18] https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/104782/tory-grandee-ken-clarke-threatens-no

[19] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48752222

[20] See entry for 19th June 2019.

[21] I thought this primarily because he was a terrible Foreign Secretary, which doesn’t bode well for higher office.

[22] LBC https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/boris-johnson-refuses-carrie-symonds-picture/

[23] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-48756081/tory-leadership-boris-johnson-on-brexit-and-his-character

[24] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-liam-fox-jeremy-hunt-no-deal-brexit-claims-criticised-a8974831.html

[25] https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brexit-remainer-rebel-mps-to-mount-a-dramatic-bid-to-block-a-no-deal-brexit-next-week-the-sun-201906262258

[26] See entry for 12th June 2019.

[27] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/27/eu-need-friends-world-stage-conditions-ripe-boris-pull-brexit/(£)

[28] https://www.thejc.com/comment/analysis/what-exactly-has-labour-mp-chris-williamson-done-to-offend-jews-here-s-a-long-list-1.485890

[29] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-48792550/labour-anti-semitism-row-jeremy-corbyn-on-chris-williamson

[30] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/i-m-starting-to-worry-about-our-brexit-policy-diane-abbott-tells-jeremy-corbyn-a4177176.html

[31] https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/28/asia/theresa-may-vladimir-putin-g20-gbr-intl/index.html

[32] https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-corbyn-too-frail-to-be-pm-fears-civil-service-9398m903t

[33] https://news.sky.com/video/survive-sophy-ridge-you-can-survive-anything-11751048

[34] See 26th June 2019

[35] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48833571

[36] https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/law-for-net-zero-emissions-begins-passage-through-parliament

[37] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-spending-climate-change-mental-health-housing-brexit-philip-hammond-a8980706.html

[38] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/02/world/europe/eu-von-der-leyen-lagarde.html

[39] https://www.classicfm.com/music-news/brexit-party-meps-turn-backs-beethoven-eu-anthem/

[40] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/02/world/europe/eu-von-der-leyen-lagarde.html

[41] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/christine-lagarde-convicted-imf-head-found-guilty-of-negligence-in-fraud-trial-a7484586.html

[42] https://www.neweurope.eu/article/weber-drops-eu-top-job-bid-as-europes-leaders-abandon-spitzenkandidat-process/

[43] http://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document.html?reference=EPRS_BRI(2018)630264

[44] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/04/ann-widdecombe-likens-brexit-to-emancipation-of-slaves

[45] https://news.sky.com/story/labour-falls-into-fourth-place-in-new-opinion-poll-11756313

[46] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-eu-liberal-democrat-brecon-and-radnorshire-plaid-cymru-greens-jane-dodds-a8989301.html

[47] https://news.sky.com/story/philip-hammond-leads-30-tory-mps-in-plot-to-stop-no-deal-brexit-in-october-11757279

[48] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48874144

[49] How wrong can you be?

[50] https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/dominic-grieve-launches-new-bid-to-block-no-deal-brexit-1-6147395

[51] The fear around at the time was that Boris or someone would prorogue Parliament for pretty much the whole of October.

[52] https://labourlist.org/2019/07/labours-two-brexit-scenarios-as-set-out-by-trade-unions/

[53] I did read it. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/09/speaker-dominic-grieve-no-deal-brexit-john-bercow, but this seems to be the ‘main amendment’ that failed. This one required a recall of Parliament to debate progress on NI. Another amendment, requiring the Government of the day to report to Parliament was passed, and is considered to have much the same effect. The reporting of this in the media is as confused as I was. This is probably the best explanation of what happened: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48930417

[54] See note 55

[55] https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1151505/brexit-news-john-major-boris-johnson-william-rees-mogg-jacob-rees-mogg-spt

[56] https://www.channel4.com/news/labour-split-over-anti-semitism-controversy-after-panorama-report

[57] https://metro.co.uk/2019/07/11/senior-tories-attack-boris-johnson-throwing-us-ambassador-bus-10174113/ This was about the leaking of confidential e-mails from the UK’s ambassador in Washington in which the ambassador was less than diplomatic about a certain US President. Boris was not seen to be supportive enough of the ambassador who had to resign and come home. Nobody seems to know who actually leaked the e-mails, but I’d guess it was a certain US President.

[58] https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/9484074/amber-rudd-no-deal-brexit-boris-johnson/

[59] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jul/12/andrew-neil-boris-johnson-tory-leadership-boris-johnson-uses-andrew-neil-interview-to-deny-failing-to-support-ambassador-live-news No doubt the full show is on the BBC website somewhere.

[60] See 31st January

[61] https://news.sky.com/video/sophy-ridge-on-sunday-full-show-11763003

[62] Of course there are: stalking, child protection issues and so on. But this is giving notice to a third party who has no business knowing about it.

Journal of the Brexit Year: May -June 2019

The Euro Elections, Trump, men in grey suits and the fall of Mrs May. Who will be the next PM? The battle for Tory hearts and minds.

15th May 2019

When the May is Out

The Government is to bring back the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) sometime in the week beginning 3rd June. This time it will be as a proper bill – henceforward to be known as the WAB (Withdrawal Act Bill)[1]. Presumably the debate on it will be a new ‘meaningful vote’.

Absolutely no one thinks this will pass the House of Commons. There’s just a possibility that Labour might abstain on the second reading, thus allowing the bill to go through to the committee stage where it can (in principle) be amended to death. I don’t think that this will happen, even if Jeremy Corbyn whips his party to abstain, as they’ll ignore him in sufficient numbers such that, along with TiG[2], SNP, ERG and DUP all voting against, it’s dead in the water. But it won’t come to that. It’s as dead as a dodo, as I and many others have been saying since MV1[3] was defeated back in January when I started this journal.

But it does seem that it will be Mrs May’s swansong. She will go at that point. Maybe. Maybe not.

Any takers for the role of Tory Leader/Prime Minister? I would normally in such circumstances suggest an interim leader from the Lords, but as William Hague is a bit wet about leaving the EU these days (Whatever happened to ‘Save the Pound’?[4] Oh, that’s right, it was saved – By Gordon Brown) there’s no one suitable there either.

16th May 2019

More Tea, Mr Grey-Suit?

Men in grey suits

The ‘Men in Grey Suits’ appear to have got to Mrs May at last[5]. Sort of. Rather than rushing off to see the Queen as soon as the Downing Street cat sniffed their approach, Mrs May had them in for tea. I’m not sure exactly who went to see her. Graham Brady for sure, Nigel Evans probably. The fact that I know who some of them where is also a sign that they are not as feared as they used to be[6]. Anyway, they seem to have got her to agree to meet with them again after the 2nd reading of the WAB to discuss a timetable for her to resign and for the Tories to elect someone else as leader[7]. I think that this assumes, as almost everyone does, that the WAB will fall at second reading. But, as I noted yesterday, Labour could abstain at that point, letting the WAB go to the committee stage. Would Mrs May use that as an excuse to stay on a bit longer to see the bill through? It would give her another week at best, but she’s stubborn enough to try it. On the other hand, it’s a big incentive for Labour to kick the bill out at second reading, and I’ll bet that’s what they will do.

Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister soon? He could stand for Tory leader. They’ll be looking to elect a Brexiteer.

17th May 2019

Labour Breaks it Off

The Tories – or rather Theresa May and four sullen looking MEP candidates – finally launched their EU Parliamentary election campaign[8]. The event was open to one journalist, a Sky News camera and two photographers. In other words, the Tories aren’t trying and don’t care.

As widely predicted, the negotiations between Labour and the Government have come to nothing[9]. It was Corbyn who finally pulled the plug on the grounds that: i) there was really not enough common ground and ii) even if there was, with Mrs May going and splits in the Tory party so deep, there was no way that he could assume that agreements would be honoured. He is quite right of course, although he would doubtless have found some way out in any event. It is not in his interest to be seen propping up a ‘Tory Brexit’.

The Liberal Democrats are optimistic that they might come second, in terms of votes, in the is week’s [EU Parliament] elections. I’m not convinced, but if they are heading that way, and if Labour’s private polling says that too, it might explain why Corbyn chose this moment to break of talks with the Government. It gives Labour time to reinforce it’s ‘all things to all men’ strategy and bolster its vote.

18th and 19th May 2019

The Rush Becomes a Flood

Mrs May, writing in the Telegraph, has said that the WAB – when brought to the Commons in the first week in June – will contain something ‘bold’[10]. Worse case scenario is that she’s bought into Corbyn’s daft ‘customs union’[11] obsession. Or it could be some kind of second referendum, or something else equally abhorrent to most of her own MPs. Or, just as likely, it’s just a re-run of the previous attempts to pass the thing, and the ‘bold’ bit being that she’s stupid and stubborn enough to try it at all before being forced to resign.

Both the Tories and Labour are still all over the place. Corbyn was on the telly today [Sunday] and didn’t want to fully commit to a second referendum[12] even though Keir Starmer definitely does want to[13]. The opinion polls[14] strongly suggest that Remainers have had enough of this balancing act by Labour and are heading off to vote Lib-Dem in the Euro-elections.

Still it’s not yet as serious for Corbyn as Leavers leaving en-mass for the Brexit party is for the Tories, but it could get to that stage in the next few days, especially in the London Euro-constituency.

20th May 2019

No entry

21st May 2019

On and On and On

Mrs May’s promised ‘bold’ new approach was set out in a speech given in the atrium of some London office block[15]. She kept staring up to the audience in the various balconies above, which made her look very odd on TV. The speech was a shocker. There was very little actually new. She had noticed that the only sort of deal that the House of Commons had actually voted for in the last few months was the ‘Brady amendment’ the one which put the ‘Malthouse compromise’ into play. So that was in the speech as a possible way to ensure that the Irish ‘backstop’ was never needed. It was followed by a commitment not to have a border in the Irish Sea should the backstop actually be invoked. After these, it was all just sops thrown at interested parties. MPs would be able to vote on having a second referendum and would get the chance to vote on some kind of temporary customs union. There would be various guarantees on worker’s rights, the environment and so forth. Unicorns were omitted.

But it’s all gone down like a lead balloon[16]. Of course, Corbyn knows that Mrs May is gone in a few weeks at most, so why not get rid of her sooner? Especially as she’s not given him everything that he wanted. The Leave Tories won’t support it – it’s worse from their point of view than the original. There’s no way it’ll get through the Commons. The question everyone is asking is, does she resign tomorrow rather than in June? The answer is, she’ll still be here in July[17].

22nd May 2019

Lost and Gone Forever

May’s ‘new’, ‘bold’ offer is rejected by everyone without the need for the House of commons to debate it. After a fairly sedate PMQs (where May was helped by a particularly inept effort by Jeremy Corbyn) there followed a Prime Ministerial Statement to the chamber[18]. Now, to be fair, I didn’t see how she did as I didn’t watch it, but by the end of it, she was toast. Quite possibly, she was a goner before she even stood up. Not even a great orator, like William Hague, could have turned everything around by this stage.

Following this, the Chief Whip turned up at the 1922 Executive meeting, said that Mrs May wasn’t going quite yet, and left[19].

Lots of journos thought she probably was going to go today. My guess is it will be Monday (if ever), but as the Queen is in London rather than Windsor, it’s best done soonest, if you ask me.

May has gone to see the Queen today, but it seems it was just for a routine audience. Could HMQ have told her it’s over?

Andrea Leadsom, Leader of the House, has resigned[20]. She said it was because she couldn’t bring herself to present the WAB to the House. Why didn’t she resign after Cabinet yesterday then? I’m guessing she decided it was time to leave the sinking ship only once it became clear that the WAB wasn’t going anywhere and, more to the point, to disassociate herself from it ahead of her own election campaign.

23rd May 2019

Corbyn 4 PM! (EU Parliamentary Election Day)

I voted today for the Brexit party in the South East constituency. Nigel Farage will be returned here. I expect it will be a Brexit party landslide, in so far as the electoral system allows. We will see on Sunday when most of the declarations will be made.

After voting, for social reasons, I made my way into That London and had a brief stroll around Victoria and then past the Palace of Westminster. The traffic was blocked off for some reason, but even allowing for that it all seemed strangely quiet.

Mrs May is clearly finished, although I stick by my previous statements in this journal that she’ll still be PM in July. She could resign as early as tomorrow, as all the pundits seem to think, but she won’t give up to some caretaker. Oh no, she’ll wait until the Tory party have gone through their procedures and a new Tory leader/PM is elected. But it is possible that whoever gets the job won’t get a confidence vote through the House of Commons, especially if the DUP has had enough.

In this case, Her Majesty may have to ask Corbyn if he thinks he can form a Government. I don’t think that he can, but under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act (FTPA), he will need to be asked.

I think there could well be a general election before the conference season in October, and we won’t be leaving the EU before that. And probably we won’t be leaving at all.

24th May 2019

Run Raabit, Run Raabit, Run, Run, Run..

At about 10:00 this morning, Mrs May announced the timetable for her resignation. She’s with us until around the end of July[21], so my prediction recently was correct.

Of course, the announcement produced much lazy journalism on the 24-hour news channels – lots of repeats of her resignation speech today and ‘classics’ from the past starting with the ‘nasty party’ speech from God-knows-when. There was much interviewing of journalists interviewing other journalists. Alastair Campbell, Owen Jones and all the other usual suspects were doing the rounds of the TV studios and the tents on College Green.

But what will May do with her remaining months in office? Some wags are suggesting we’ll have ‘meaningful vote’ 4, and 5, if she can get away with it. If I was her though, I’d give up on Brexit altogether and see if she can’t get some action to get the ‘burning injustices’ dealt with. The House has very little to do at the moment, and she can get that sort of thing through, if she’s so minded. If she does it right, Labour will actually support much of it.

Who will succeed her? There’s a huge field of candidates developing. My money, at this very early stage, is on Dominic Raab[22]. It’s not that I want him to be PM, but the Parliamentary Conservative Party might.

25th and 26th May 2019

European Election Results

I stayed up until all the results were in except for Scotland, where the Western Islands don’t do any counting on ‘The Lord’s Day’, and Northern Ireland. But it was still fairly easy for the spread-sheeters to work out what the Scottish results were.

It was a good day for the Brexit party, and also good for the Lib-Dems. It was hopeless for the Tories and Labour suffered badly too. Even Alastair Campbell voted Liberal Democrat[23].

God only knows what difference this will all make in Parliament and for the Brexit outcome. Those in favour of a ‘people’s vote’ might be encouraged, but it’s really too close to call.

27th May 2019

Jumping Ship

Lots of analysis and re-analysis of the results[24]. Did remain voters beat leave voters? While the Brexit party clearly won, Green, SNP and the Lib-Dems together got about as many votes. How do you classify the remnant Tory and Labour loyalist votes on the remain/leave scale? Especially for fence-sitting Labour.

There’s a lot of people about who want Jeremy Corbyn and Labour to come out clearly in favour of remain, or if not for ‘a new referendum with remain as an option on the ballot paper’. That is a non-binary vote with remain as the de facto default position. Or in other words, a vote where remain wins without requiring 50% of the voters to want to remain by splitting the leave vote either with two (or more) leave options or with only one terrible leave ‘deal’ on offer. A fix.

Will Jeremy Corbyn, who clearly won’t want a General Election given the debacle of the European Parliament elections last week, fall for it? It would obviously be a cynical move if he did so at this stage. He is a leaver, as is just about everyone of his age and politics, but the PLP[25] and most of its voters south of Watford Gap are not. In particular, Jeremy’s voters in Islington are solidly remain. He might very well be forced to jump onto the ‘People’s Vote’ bandwagon.

28th May 2019

Purge, Purge and Purge Again!

My head is full of non-Brexity stuff. Some guy on Twitter, who is a lefty American journo, keeps banging on about ‘The Scientific Method’ when he’s clearly no idea what he means by that. He thinks he knows something but can’t say what it is. Anyway, back to Brexit.

Alastair Campbell has been expelled from the Labour Party because he admitted on the TV that he voted Lib-Dem in the Euro-election last week[26]. Have the Labour Party no shame? They must be aware that Campbell is a sufferer from a severe case of Brexit Derangement Syndrome (BDS). Throwing him out of the party whilst he suffers from this ailment is cruel, to put it mildly. Shows that their rhetoric about supporting the sick is just hot air. Hypocrites!

Or, it could be the start of a purge of the Blairites, many of whom are now admitting that they too voted for a Remain party over Labour this time. On the other hand, it has got the fact that Labour are being investigated for anti-Semitism[27] off the front pages. That must please Jeremy.

The Tory leadership race continues. There are now at least 11 candidates. Most of them are quite unsuitable. Probably all of them are.

29th May 2019

Rory, Rory, Tell Us Your Story![28]

There’s now a football team worth of candidates for the Tory leadership. I’ve put a tenner, at 4 to 1, on Gove. I’m not especially supportive of him, but I think he’s worth a punt at that price. Why? Because he’s got a better chance than Boris at getting through to the final two as the Brexiteer candidate.

The media seems to be bigging up someone hitherto unknown, an Old Etonian called Rory Stewart. He’s risen without trace from obscurity to be the DFID[29] Secretary under Mrs May. He’s dripping wet, some sort of Remainer, but has an admittedly interesting back-story in MI6. I understand that the general view in Westminster is that he’s wet behind the ears. Certainly, DFID isn’t a great department to claim Government experience from, but then Cameron had none worth speaking of either. Anyhow, as Rory’s a Remainer, he won’t pass the membership, even if he got that far.

Another pretender, Matt Hancock[30], has just done a poor interview on Newsnight[31], I’m told. So maybe that’s one down already.

30th May 2019

Kicking a General election Into the Long Grass

There’s nothing truly ‘Brexity’ going on. It’s all fall-out, such as the Tory leadership, Labour’s positioning, Alastair Campbell’s continuing decline…

Today’s polling, conducted 28-29 May, has the Lib-Dems ahead on 24% followed by the Brexit party on 22%. Labour and the Tories about level pegging at 19% each. The Greens have 8%[32]. It’s Westminster voting intention. The important thing is that according to this poll (unless it’s an outlier) four parties on very roughly the same percentage. This does not help the Brexit party much, given the First Past the Post (FPTP) electoral system. Nor does it do the Greens any favours. Both the Conservatives and Labour would each still gather a hefty haul of seats. I’d guess that, if repeated in a real vote, we’d get a Lib-Lab coalition with a Liberal-Democrat PM and Brexit revoked. But with these sort of polling figures, there’s no chance Parliament will want a dissolution before 2022.

31st May 2019

Boris Trumped

The Tory leadership election and Donald Trump is today’s only real news. Without explicitly saying ‘Back Boris’, Trump has said what a good guy he is. Basically, you can’t expect The Donald to ‘back’ any of the others as he’s never heard of them! Hardly a ringing endorsement in that context.

The various parties are gearing up for the Peterborough by-election next week. Everyone seems to be trying to hold mass canvasses or other activities this weekend. Everyone, just about, seems to think that the Brexit party will win with the Lib-Dems a close second. But we’ll see. It’s a question of how many votes the traditional parties can keep hold of and how this divides up the leave/remain vote.

On the opinion poll I mentioned yesterday, it seems that ‘Brexit party’ was unprompted (Along with Change UK and UKIP)[33]. This means that it was only given as an option if the person polled said ‘other’ to the question as originally asked. Farage reckons that if his party had been prompted for, as the Lib-Dems, Tories and Labour were, then it would have polled higher, putting it in the lead. We will have to wait to see what the next polls say.

1st and 2nd June 2019

Polling

I think there are 13 candidates for the Tory leadership[34] now. And there may be more to come. I’m not sure that Priti Patel has declared yet. Maybe she won’t[35]. Perhaps some are doing a ‘wait and see’. The position isn’t officially open yet, and there’s nearly a week to go until it is. And then, presumably, nominations are open for several days thereafter. We could easily have some candidates dropping out before Friday as well as some new ones.

Another opinion poll has the Brexit party marginally ahead[36]. Not all pollsters are prompting for it yet (there’s an editorial in Monday’s Telegraph about this, apparently[37]). They all will be by next week, I’m quite sure.

The Brexit party will probably win the Peterborough by-election. It won’t look good for them if they don’t. I know that they have a reasonable ground campaign, but I expect that the ‘main’ parties will do too. It will also be a test of the pollsters’ methods, although whatever happens it will be said that ‘local factors’ were in play, so it doesn’t reflect on national polling if there’s a big difference.

Trump is coming up to London to see the Queen!

3rd June 2019

Trump: Day 1

The visit of ‘The Donald’ dominated the news today, so very little Brexit stuff has come to my attention today.

President Macron is said to be insisting that there will be no further extension to Article 50 after the agreed date of 31 October if he has anything to do with it[38]. Which, given he has a veto under EU rules, he does. I suspect it depends on the state of play when the EU actually has to decide.

Trump continues to be pro-Brexit and to offer a ‘good trade deal’ once it happens. ‘Good’ for the USA, obviously, as that is what Trump the dealmaker is out to do while he is president. Beware the orange man bearing gifts, as the old proverb ought to go.

4th June 2019

Trump: Day 2: All Change UK

Trump is still here and promises a ‘phenomenal trade deal’ post-Brexit, if we ever get there. Some lefties are getting themselves in a twist as Trump also said that even the NHS would be ‘on the table’ in any trade deal[39]. They should remember that:

  1. Trump doesn’t know what the NHS is, and May had to remind him. He probably still doesn’t know what it is.
  2. No trade deal in the world (except the EU in certain circumstances) stops countries organising their own state-run enterprises (so long as it is not done as a get-around of the deal)
  3. The NHS buys in nearly all its drugs and equipment and much else from private companies from around the world as it is. That is the business Trump will want.
  4. The fuss over the EU’s proposed TTIP deal with the US was precisely over misconceived ideas of how it would affect the NHS[40], so being in the EU might be a no better and probably a worse way to defend ‘Our NHS’.
  5. Trump’s a negotiator, so puts everything he wants up front – it doesn’t mean he’ll get it.

Also today, Change UK has lost over half its MPs to much hilarity from just about everyone. Anna Soubry is now in charge of them, also to much hilarity from just about everyone[41].

5th June 2019

Trump: Day 3: Build the Wall!

The Donald joined Her Majesty at the D-Day commemorations today. And that would have been it for the news… Until Trump went on to Ireland to visit one of his golf courses. As protocol insists, he met with the Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar. He explained, in front of the press, that he’d met ‘good people’ in London, by which he meant Brexiteers- probably Farage – and insisted that the Northern Ireland border problem would easily be solved by building a wall[42].

I expect a row-back tomorrow when he finds out what the NI border problem is actually about. He could, of course, have been having a laugh, but I don’t think so[43]. He’s just very badly briefed or he doesn’t read what he’s given. Being an old-fashioned isolationist, foreign affairs are not his thing.

The Tory leadership election continues (unofficially). Two potentials, Kit Malthouse and James Cleverley[44] have dropped out so I think we are back to a football team of eleven, and they’ve changed the rules a bit which should eliminate the no-hopers more quickly than the old rules did[45]. This may explain why these two have given up now as they haven’t got enough support to even get started.

6th June 2019

Before the By-Election Result

I write this before the results of the Peterborough by-election have been declared. Rumour has it that Labour may squeak through, with the Brexit party a close second[46]. If true, then Corbyn’s strategy of ambiguity will receive a boost. Labour may continue to resist calls to adopt [the policy of] a second referendum in which it campaigns for ‘remain’ and instead maintains its position firmly on the fence.

Several of the Tory leadership candidates have floated the idea that Parliament could be prorogued[47] [48] to allow a (no-deal) Brexit to happen by default. Mr Speaker Bercow, speaking in the USA a couple of days ago and again today, says this will not happen[49] [50]. I’m not sure if what he says is strictly correct or not, but it would surely be an act of desperation if any PM tried. It would require the Queen’s involvement, which she wouldn’t want to do.

7th June 2019

No entry. [I was getting rather bored of the Tory leadership race, and there are a few more gaps in the journal than usual around this time.]

8th and 9th June 2019

Tory leadership race is collapsing into a farce with leading contenders trying to outdo each other with how many illegal substances they managed to shove up their noses ‘a long time ago’. Nauseating, sanctimonious hypocrites the lot of them.

It’s Gove who seems to be suffering the most from all this[51]. He’s admitted taking cocaine at some time or another when he was a ‘young journalist’ some 20 years ago[52]. Which means he was in his thirties, if my maths is correct, so not that ‘young’.

Boris is now the clear favourite amongst those declared so far (There might be one more declaring tomorrow, Penny Mordaunt). But he’s saying silly stuff about not paying the EU £39 billion if there’s ‘no-deal’ – by which he means not just a withdrawal agreement but a final deal[53]. This is good Faragist[54] rhetoric, but perhaps not wise for a likely future Prime Minister to say.

Honestly, I’m sick of the lot of them. I’m increasingly agreeing with Pete North[55] that they are all useless idiots who haven’t the foggiest what can be done, and still less what they will actually do.

10th June 2019

No entry.

11th June 2019

Stop Brexit No-Deal!

Labour – officially – plus Tory Remainers like Oliver Letwin are to try a re-run of ‘taking over the Commons agenda’ with a view to somehow acting to prevent a ‘no-deal’ Brexit and specifically to stop any future Tory leader from getting ‘no-deal’ through by proroguing Parliament[56]. I assume that the idea is to pass some kind of bill to make this binding[57]. This should all come up tomorrow in the House.

They’re all very worried about it because Boris and several other of the 10 Tory PM candidates have suggested that Parliament could be prorogued to allow Brexit to occur while the House of Commons can’t do anything about it.

Also, it is rumoured (or leaked) that at Cabinet this morning Geoffrey Cox, with his Attorney General’s hat on, told them that proroguing Parliament for this purpose would be ‘improper, unconstitutional, but not illegal’[58].

So, the Tory leadership race is not just getting the Tories flustered, it has clearly caused Remainers to sweat. If I had to guess, I think that Letwin and Labour will get their control over the Parliamentary agenda but may be surprised to find that their bill doesn’t actually pass. The EU elections may have focussed the minds of enough MPs [so this step is not taken].

12th June 2019

Are Things Looking Up for Brexit?

It would be quite premature to say that things have turned around, but Letwin and Corbyn did not get their motion through Parliament today[59]. There will not be a day put aside to consider and perhaps pass legislation to prevent no-deal and/or a prorogation of Parliament. Some of the Tory leadership candidates are still promising to leave without a deal if necessary – which is ‘no-deal’ as far as the House of Commons is concerned – even if they have to prorogue Parliament to do so. But that rhetoric seems a bit ‘toned down’ today.

Which might explain why the motion was voted down. But it could come back. As Corbyn was heard to say, whilst shouting in the Commons when his motion was lost, it could come back in September[60], when a new PM is in place.

Eight Labour MPs who voted against the Labour whip this evening (Ten Tories, the usual suspects, voted with Labour) won’t be voting to do anything to scupper Brexit now. They are all Labour Brexiteers, and they will defy any whip from Corbyn on this. If the new PM is cleverer than May, some kind of deal other than no-deal might just pass.

13th June 2019

All Change Please!

Boris stormed ahead in the Tory leadership election first round[61]. He got enough votes this time to get through to the final two to be voted on by the wider [Conservative Party] membership, assuming he can keep hold of this support. Of course, Boris is prone to gaffs, and the final run-off is some weeks away. There’s many a slip…

Boris isn’t so stupid as he often makes out. Certainly not so stupid as his opponents make him out to be. Nevertheless, he will need a very strong team around him if he’s to be a half-decent PM. Could this mean a return to proper Cabinet government, or will it be a government by SPAD[62]?

Change UK is now ‘The Independent Group for Change’[63]. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose. Or not.

Chuka Umunna has joined the Lib-Dems[64]. Is it too late for him to run for party leader?[65] How will the burghers of Streatham receive the news? What will the Streatham Lib-Dems think? I think Chuka’s career won’t survive the 2020 General Election, if we even get that far without a General Election.

Rory Stewart says that the anti-Parliament will meet at Methodist Central Hall in October[66].

14th June 2019

Boris in China

How does the Tory leadership election effect Brexit? The chances are that someone – Boris or at a pinch Gove – who was a supporter of Brexit at the Referendum will get it. This changes the dynamic. While Mrs May as Prime Minister genuinely wanted the UK out, she probably saw it as a damage limitation exercise: buying into what Brussels wanted subject only to certain ‘red-lines’, some of which she obtained but perhaps by sacrificing other things that might have kept more Brexiteers on-side.

Further, she didn’t have the trust of Leavers who were perhaps seeing problems that they would have overlooked if a dyed in the wool Leaver had proposed the current Withdrawal Agreement.

Perhaps only Boris, of the current crop of leadership candidates, can sell something pretty much like May’s deal – but with the promise of something much different for the final arrangement.

Only Nixon could go to China.


[1] https://metro.co.uk/2019/05/15/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-doomed-failure-next-month-9553732/

[2] The Independent Group.

[3] ‘Meaningful Vote 1’ on 15th January 2019.

[4] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1331662/Two-weeks-to-save-the-pound-says-Hague.html

[5] https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/may/17/may-ends-in-june-how-the-papers-covered-the-pms-exit-deal

[6] This was a bit of a silly comment. Those in the know always knew – it’s the executive of the 1922 committee. The difference is that reporters used to like to create a mysterious air about them for journalistic purposes. Nowadays they don’t.

[7] https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/may-to-set-departure-date-after-4th-meaningful-vote-bj-announces-leadership-bid-19m9UxmMMEuAmx4aq-J1Wg/

[8] https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/conservatives-eu-election-launch-1-6056948

[9] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/17/brexit-talks-tories-labour-likely-to-collapse-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn

[10] https://news.yahoo.com/may-mps-final-bold-offer-brexit-deal-015517690.html

[11] In this journal I have tried to use ‘Customs Union’ (capitalised) to mean the existing EU Customs Union; ‘customs union’ (no capitals) to mean some other so far undetermined type of customs union, and ‘customs arrangement’ to mean something also undetermined but somewhat weaker. Most politicians and commentators are very lax about what they mean by these terms, sometimes using them interchangeably, creating confusion for me, and probably themselves.

[12] https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1129129/Brexit-news-Andrew-Marr-Jeremy-Corbyn-UK-EU-withdrawal-second-referendum-Labour-latest

[13] https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-may-could-end-impasse-with-confirmatory-vote-sir-keir-starmer-claims-11723511

[14] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/18/opinium-poll-conservatives-trounced-by-brexit-party-remainers-abandon-labour

[15] It was at PriceWaterhouseCoopers. https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/world/eurosceptic-tories-react-angrily-to-theresa-mays-truly-awful-brexit-proposals-925821.html

[16] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/mps-hit-out-at-theresa-may-s-new-brexit-plan-a4147981.html

[17] She was of course, ‘still here in July’, but I suppose she was only a caretaker by the time she did finally depart from office. I claim half a mark for this prediction.

[18] https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-new-brexit-deal-22-may-2019

[19] https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1130723/Theresa-May-news-Brexit-latest-resign-quit-Conservative-Party-Prime-Minister-EU

[20] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48372989

[21] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7067253/Minute-minute-24-hours-turmoil-led-Theresa-Mays-resignation.html

[22] I’ve no idea now why I wrote this. I may have supposed he would be the ‘Stop Boris’ candidate.

[23] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-48417885/i-voted-liberal-democrat-says-alastair-campbell

[24] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom#Results

[25] Parliamentary Labour Party

[26] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/28/labour-expels-alastair-campbell-from-party

[27] https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-ehrc-watchdog-launches-full-16212974

[28] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_Kwackers

[29] Department for International Development.

[30] https://www.gov.uk/government/people/matthew-hancock

[31] https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-tory-leadership-is-boris-johnson-s-to-lose-xbdw3c8ls Scroll down for the bit about Hancock’s interview.

[32] YouGov https://www.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-lib-dems-first-place-brexit-labour-and-conservatives-2019-5?r=US&IR=T

[33] https://sputniknews.com/europe/201905311075512695-farage-poll-hidden-brexit/

[34] https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/these-are-the-13-tory-leadership-candidates-in-order-of-likelihood-to-replace-may/03/06/

[35] She didn’t, but it seems that she was very close to doing so.

[36] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/01/brexit-party-nigel-farage-lead-opinion-poll-conservatives-opinium

[37] It was by Nigel Farage, which I didn’t realise when I wrote the above. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/02/pollsters-blatant-dishonesty-brexit-ruining-public-trust/

[38] https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-macron/macron-wants-october-31-as-final-deadline-for-brexit-idUKKCN1T41X1

[39] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-04/trump-says-trade-could-triple-with-u-k-in-deal-following-brexit

[40] This article is old and the TTIP is a dead letter, but the explanation is useful. https://fullfact.org/europe/does-ttip-mean-privatisation-nhs/

[41] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48515505

[42] He didn’t quite say that, but he was clearly confusing the issues. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/05/ireland-visit-donald-trump-arrives-leo-varadkar-discussions

[43] If Putin had said it, I would have been sure it was a joke.

[44] https://metro.co.uk/2019/06/04/james-cleverly-kit-malthouse-pull-tory-leadership-race-9811161/

[45] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48513896

[46] This happened. Results here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Peterborough_by-election#Results

[47] https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/evolutionofparliament/parliamentwork/offices-and-ceremonies/overview/prorogation1/

[48] It seems that it was Raab. https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/dominic-raabs-prorogue-comments-play-out/

[49] Probably on this video (I haven’t watched it) https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-role-of-parliament-in-todays-britain/

[50] He also said it again on the day of this entry, from the chair https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/104381/john-bercow-slaps-down-would-be-pm-dominic

[51] https://www.amazon.co.uk/Michael-Gove-Hurry-Owen-Bennett/dp/178590440X

[52] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48564722

[53] The EU’s position at this time was that there will be no ‘final deal’ unless the £39bn is agreed as part of the withdrawal agreement first.

[54] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faragism

[55] See various of Pete’s blog posts here http://peterjnorth.blogspot.com/

[56] https://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2019/06/11/labour-in-cross-party-bid-to-avoid-no-deal-brexit/

[57] Like the ‘Cooper Bill’.

[58] https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/suspending-parliament-to-force-through-no-deal-brexit-would-not-be-illegal-says-attorney-general-dbtzhznsq (£)

[59] https://labourlist.org/2019/06/mps-reject-labour-led-plan-to-take-control-and-block-no-deal/

[60] What Corbyn said was ‘You won’t be cheering in September’.

[61] https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-tory-leadership-vote-results-16511629

[62] SPecial ADvisor

[63] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/13/change-uk-to-change-name-again-independent-group-for-change

[64] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/former-labour-and-change-uk-mp-chuka-umunna-joins-liberal-democrats-a4167041.html

[65] The Lib-Dems were seeking a new leader at this time.

[66] I wish I’d made more of this story. Completely bonkers for a candidate for the office of Prime Minister to talk this way. Amazing that he was given the time of day in the media after this. Of course, he wasn’t the only one talking treasonous nonsense. https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/104556/rory-stewart-vows-%E2%80%98bring-down%E2%80%99-boris